A Note on the Oil Price Trend and GARCH Shocks

This paper investigates the trend in the monthly real price of oil between 1990 and 2008 with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Trend and volatility are estimated jointly with the maximum likelihood estimation. There is long persistence in the variance of oil price shocks, and a GARCH unit root (GUR) test can potentially yield a significant power gain relative to the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. After allowing for nonlinearity, the evidence supports a deterministic trend in the price of oil. The deterministic trend implies that influence of a price shock is transitory and policy efforts to restore a predictable price after a shock would be unwarranted in the long run.Oil Price, Volatility, Trend, GARCH, Fourier Form

Breaks in the Chain of Comparative Advantage

chain; comparative advantage

Using genetic algorithms to create meaningful poetic text

Work carried out when all authors were at the University of Edinburgh.Peer reviewedPostprin

Impact of Subsidies Across Alabama Counties: An Econometric Interpretation

Fixed effect time series effect models are used to analyze the spatial and time series pattern of the effects of subsidies on manufacturing income across twenty counties in Alabama from 1970 to 1999. The results from the fixed effect model indicate that median populated counties performed better than larger and smaller counties while the time series effect model indicates that the impact of subsidies is marginal across the state over time.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Landform identification: Lunar radar images

Three sets of polarized radar-echo images of the Moon were examined to establish the relation between radar resolution and landform-identification resolution. After comparison with lunar maps and photographs, real and apparent landforms on the radar images were grouped into one of seven classes. Results show strong relations between radar resolution and diameter or relief of landforms that are clearly identified and those that would probably be correctly identified (class 1 and class 2). Landforms are not detected (class 5) at all diameters and reliefs, but the percentage of undetected landforms decreases with increasing mean diameter and mean relief. Landforms are simply detected (class 4) at most mean diameters and reliefs. Ambiguous arrays (class 6) portrayed by the radar constitute up to about 16, 22, and 15% of the landforms at various diameters and relief values for the 3.8 cm, 70 cm high resolution, and 70 cm low resolution images, respectively. Only a few percent of the landforms portrayed by the radar images at various diameters and relief values are fictitious (class 7)

Exchange Rates and Commodity Markets: Global Exports of Corn, Cotton, Poultry, and Soybeans

The effects of exchange rates and risk on major commodity exporters are examined in markets constructed from the top five importers and top three exporters from 1961 to 2000. Depreciation typically stimulates exports but the impacts vary considerably. Exchange risk has virtually no negative impacts. Importer incomes raise exports for about half the exporters, and major competitor market shares affect about half the exporters.Exchange rates, commodity exports, market shares,

Trends in Factor Price Elasticities Adding Energy to Capital and Labor in the US Economy

This paper estimates trends in factor price elasticities adding energy Btu input to fixed capital assets and the labor force in annual US data from 1949 to 2013. Second order effects improve estimates of the production function in log differences. The unrestricted estimates test for concavity and constant returns to scale. Adding energy input reduces the apparent productivity of labor and reveals strong capital-labor factor price elasticities with pronounced trends. Energy and labor trend to become weak complements. These trends offer insight into recent economic history and keys to predicting the future as well

Henry Thompson to James Meredith (Undated)

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/mercorr_pro/1695/thumbnail.jp

Koch Mine Safe and the Cordon Sanitaire Clearance Program

Through the work of Koch GmbH and Mine-Tech, the 359 km-long Cordon Sanitaire in Zimbabwe is being demined in one of the first humanitarian demining efforts of its kind

Histological Studies of the Gastric Mucosa in Peptic Ulceration and Gastric Carcinoma, and Analysis of Post-Mortem Records in Relation to Peptic Ulceration

Abstract Not Provided